RSI2 Overbought + New High = Short Term sell.

Over the past month, by far, i have posted more buy signals than sell. Recently (over the past couple of days) i have been seeing more and more short term sell signals crop up. The first set of such signals was discussed Sunday night and remain on the board tonight. I of the belief that any decline that results from these signals may be buying opportunities, but none the less, the fact that they are showing up in clusters does indicate the market may need a pause. I have one more short term sell signal to add to the ones already open tonight.

S&P 500 RSI(2) closed at 97.35, just under the 98 i usually scan for. However, i decided to run a study to see what the odds look like when the RSI(2) closed above 97 and the S&P has made a new high. There have been 17 previous similar setups. In 15 cases (or 88%) the S&P was trading lower within 3 days.

(Note: column '3Day+' displays the number of days it took the S&P to close higher within the next 3 days. a value of 0 indicates the market did not close lower within 3 days)

Ticker	Date/Time	Close	3Day-	%Chg N1	%Chg N2	%Chg N3
SP500	4/12/1999	1,358.63	1.00	-0.65	-2.22	-2.63
SP500	7/1/1999	1,380.96	0.00	0.74	0.52	1.08
SP500	12/23/1999	1,458.34	1.00	-0.09	-0.05	0.35
SP500	12/31/1999	1,469.25	1.00	-0.95	-4.75	-4.57
SP500	3/23/2000	1,527.35	2.00	0.01	-0.23	-1.28
SP500	9/2/2003	1,021.99	3.00	0.42	0.59	-0.06
SP500	12/1/2003	1,070.12	1.00	-0.33	-0.50	-0.04
SP500	12/31/2003	1,111.92	1.00	-0.31	0.93	1.06
SP500	1/8/2004	1,131.92	1.00	-0.89	-0.41	-0.95
SP500	11/12/2004	1,184.17	1.00	-0.03	-0.74	-0.19
SP500	7/14/2005	1,226.50	2.00	0.12	-0.44	0.23
SP500	11/21/2005	1,254.85	0.00	0.51	0.86	1.07
SP500	1/9/2006	1,290.15	1.00	-0.04	0.31	-0.32
SP500	3/16/2006	1,305.33	2.00	0.15	-0.02	-0.62
SP500	10/24/2006	1,377.38	3.00	0.35	0.85	-0.00
SP500	11/17/2006	1,401.20	1.00	-0.05	0.11	0.35
SP500	1/16/2007	1,431.90	1.00	-0.09	-0.39	-0.10
SP500	10/12/2009	1,076.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

This suggests a close below 1076 at some point over the next 3 days.