Tuesday, October 13, 2009

RSI2 Overbought + New High = Short Term sell.

Over the past month, by far, i have posted more buy signals than sell. Recently (over the past couple of days) i have been seeing more and more short term sell signals crop up. The first set of such signals was discussed Sunday night and remain on the board tonight. I of the belief that any decline that results from these signals may be buying opportunities, but none the less, the fact that they are showing up in clusters does indicate the market may need a pause. I have one more short term sell signal to add to the ones already open tonight.

S&P 500 RSI(2) closed at 97.35, just under the 98 i usually scan for. However, i decided to run a study to see what the odds look like when the RSI(2) closed above 97 and the S&P has made a new high. There have been 17 previous similar setups. In 15 cases (or 88%) the S&P was trading lower within 3 days.


(Note: column '3Day+' displays the number of days it took the S&P to close higher within the next 3 days. a value of 0 indicates the market did not close lower within 3 days)

TickerDate/TimeClose3Day-%Chg N1%Chg N2%Chg N3
SP5004/12/19991,358.631.00-0.65-2.22-2.63
SP5007/1/19991,380.960.000.740.521.08
SP50012/23/19991,458.341.00-0.09-0.050.35
SP50012/31/19991,469.251.00-0.95-4.75-4.57
SP5003/23/20001,527.352.000.01-0.23-1.28
SP5009/2/20031,021.993.000.420.59-0.06
SP50012/1/20031,070.121.00-0.33-0.50-0.04
SP50012/31/20031,111.921.00-0.310.931.06
SP5001/8/20041,131.921.00-0.89-0.41-0.95
SP50011/12/20041,184.171.00-0.03-0.74-0.19
SP5007/14/20051,226.502.000.12-0.440.23
SP50011/21/20051,254.850.000.510.861.07
SP5001/9/20061,290.151.00-0.040.31-0.32
SP5003/16/20061,305.332.000.15-0.02-0.62
SP50010/24/20061,377.383.000.350.85-0.00
SP50011/17/20061,401.201.00-0.050.110.35
SP5001/16/20071,431.901.00-0.09-0.39-0.10
SP50010/12/20091,076.190.000.000.000.00

This suggests a close below 1076 at some point over the next 3 days.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice blog sir. Stick with it. Regards, Jeff Pietsch of Market Rewind

Anonymous said...

well i think today put those short signals to bed ! But Great work here ! we appreciate your insights !

Dave appel

The Small Fish said...

Thanks Jeff!
And indeed Dave. Technically, this particular signal was fulfilled yesterday, however the ones discussed Sunday are off the board as of tonight - and in the 'failure' pile.

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