Friday, October 23, 2009

USD Lower Lows Signals S&P Short Term Buy

The two buy signals discussed here and here have been fulfilled successfully with today's higher close.

Looking at the chart of the US dollar(on a closing basis) from the 2007 to present shows that the S&P and the dollar have been moving inversely in what appears to be lock steps. This is interesting to me because it was 2007 where we topped and eventually began a decline that would lead us into a recession. Since 2007, in a trending market (defined by the S&P 50 MA trading above the 200MA), when the dollar has made a new 40 day low, but the S&P did not make a 40 day high , the S&P typically goes on to make a higher high within 3 days .
  • There have been 49 prior instances since 2007. In 44 cases (or 89.8%) , the market went on to make a higher high within 3 days.
  • In 41 cases (83.7%) of the times, the market closed higher within two days.
(Note: column '3Day+' displays the number of days it took the S&P to close higher within the next 3 days. a value of 0 indicates the market did not close higher within 3 days)

Ticker
Date/Time
3Day+
%Chg N1
%Chg N2
%Chg N3
SP500
10/22/2009
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
SP500
10/21/2009
1.00
1.06
1.06
1.06
SP500
10/13/2009
1.00
1.75
2.18
1.35
SP500
10/8/2009
1.00
0.56
1.01
0.72
SP500
9/17/2009
1.00
0.26
-0.08
0.58
SP500
9/11/2009
1.00
0.63
0.95
2.50
SP500
9/8/2009
1.00
0.78
1.83
1.69
SP500
8/5/2009
2.00
-0.56
0.77
0.44
SP500
11/26/2007
1.00
1.49
4.39
4.44
SP500
11/23/2007
3.00
-2.32
-0.87
1.97
SP500
11/21/2007
1.00
1.69
-0.67
0.81
SP500
11/20/2007
2.00
-1.59
0.07
-2.26
SP500
11/9/2007
2.00
-1.00
1.88
1.16
SP500
11/8/2007
3.00
-1.43
-2.41
0.43
SP500
11/7/2007
0.00
-0.06
-1.49
-2.47
SP500
11/6/2007
0.00
-2.94
-2.99
-4.38
SP500
11/2/2007
2.00
-0.50
0.70
-2.25
SP500
10/31/2007
0.00
-2.64
-2.56
-3.05
SP500
10/30/2007
1.00
1.20
-1.47
-1.40
SP500
10/29/2007
2.00
-0.65
0.55
-2.11
SP500
10/26/2007
1.00
0.37
-0.28
0.92
SP500
10/25/2007
1.00
1.38
1.76
1.10
SP500
10/19/2007
1.00
0.38
1.26
1.02
SP500
10/18/2007
0.00
-2.56
-2.19
-1.33
SP500
9/28/2007
1.00
1.33
1.30
0.84
SP500
9/25/2007
1.00
0.54
0.93
0.63
SP500
9/21/2007
0.00
-0.53
-0.56
-0.02
SP500
9/20/2007
1.00
0.46
-0.07
-0.10
SP500
9/12/2007
1.00
0.84
0.86
0.35
SP500
9/11/2007
1.00
0.00
0.85
0.87
SP500
9/10/2007
1.00
1.36
1.37
2.22
SP500
9/7/2007
2.00
-0.13
1.23
1.24
SP500
7/24/2007
1.00
0.47
-1.88
-3.45
SP500
7/20/2007
1.00
0.49
-1.50
-1.04
SP500
7/18/2007
1.00
0.45
-0.78
-0.30
SP500
7/16/2007
3.00
-0.01
-0.22
0.23
SP500
7/11/2007
1.00
1.91
2.22
2.03
SP500
7/10/2007
1.00
0.57
2.49
2.81
SP500
7/2/2007
1.00
0.36
0.39
0.72
SP500
4/30/2007
1.00
0.27
0.91
1.35
SP500
4/24/2007
1.00
1.01
0.93
0.92
SP500
4/19/2007
1.00
0.93
0.69
0.66
SP500
4/13/2007
1.00
1.07
1.28
1.35
SP500
4/12/2007
1.00
0.35
1.42
1.64
SP500
4/11/2007
1.00
0.62
0.97
2.05
SP500
4/5/2007
1.00
0.06
0.32
-0.34
SP500
3/21/2007
2.00
-0.03
0.07
0.17
SP500
3/20/2007
1.00
1.71
1.67
1.78
SP500
3/16/2007
1.00
1.09
1.73
3.47
SP500
2/27/2007
1.00
0.56
0.30
-0.85




1 comments:

The Small Fish said...

Anyone else having all kinds of issues with Blogger lately? I was not able to make this post this morning and it appears their new editor is misbehaving - back to the old editor.

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