With today's (relatively) huge down day, a number of ST buy signals were triggered. They included signals from the VIX, U/D volume, and Arms Index. I'm sure these will be mentioned or discussed elsewhere, so what i wanted to do instead was focus on a slightly different signal. You probably have heard many technicians argue that you should buy pull backs in an uptrend. What they may not define however is what constitutes a 'pullback' and a 'trend'. I will suggest it is a 2%+ one day decline while trading above the 200ma. Had you bought ever such pullback in the S&P 500 during the last decade, you would have traded 25 times, with 21 cases (or 84%) providing a positive return within the next 3 days.
(Note: column '3Day+' displays the number of days it took the S&P to close higher within the next 3 days. a value of 0 indicates the market did not close lower within 3 days)
| Ticker | Date/Time | Close | 3Day+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N2 | %Chg N3 |
|---|
| SP500 | 2/9/1999 | 1,216.14 | 1.00 | 0.61 | 3.12 | 1.15 |
| SP500 | 3/23/1999 | 1,262.14 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 2.21 | 1.64 |
| SP500 | 4/19/1999 | 1,289.48 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 3.62 | 5.38 |
| SP500 | 5/14/1999 | 1,337.80 | 1.00 | 0.13 | -0.33 | 0.48 |
| SP500 | 7/20/1999 | 1,377.10 | 1.00 | 0.16 | -1.17 | -1.46 |
| SP500 | 9/21/1999 | 1,307.58 | 1.00 | 0.22 | -2.08 | -2.31 |
| SP500 | 1/4/2000 | 1,399.42 | 1.00 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 3.00 |
| SP500 | 1/24/2000 | 1,401.53 | 1.00 | 0.61 | 0.18 | -0.21 |
| SP500 | 1/28/2000 | 1,360.16 | 1.00 | 2.52 | 3.61 | 3.60 |
| SP500 | 2/9/2000 | 1,411.71 | 1.00 | 0.36 | -1.74 | -1.54 |
| SP500 | 2/11/2000 | 1,387.12 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.08 | 0.04 |
| SP500 | 4/12/2000 | 1,467.17 | 0.00 | -1.82 | -7.54 | -4.48 |
| SP500 | 5/3/2000 | 1,415.10 | 2.00 | -0.39 | 1.24 | 0.64 |
| SP500 | 5/19/2000 | 1,406.95 | 0.00 | -0.44 | -2.35 | -0.56 |
| SP500 | 5/19/2003 | 920.77 | 2.00 | -0.11 | 0.29 | 1.21 |
| SP500 | 2/27/2007 | 1,399.04 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.30 | -0.85 |
| SP500 | 3/13/2007 | 1,377.95 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.04 | 0.65 |
| SP500 | 7/26/2007 | 1,482.66 | 0.00 | -1.60 | -0.59 | -1.85 |
| SP500 | 8/9/2007 | 1,453.09 | 1.00 | 0.04 | -0.01 | -1.83 |
| SP500 | 10/19/2007 | 1,500.63 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 1.26 | 1.02 |
| SP500 | 11/1/2007 | 1,508.44 | 1.00 | 0.08 | -0.42 | 0.78 |
| SP500 | 6/15/2009 | 923.72 | 0.00 | -1.27 | -1.41 | -0.58 |
| SP500 | 7/2/2009 | 896.42 | 1.00 | 0.26 | -1.72 | -1.88 |
| SP500 | 8/17/2009 | 979.73 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.71 | 2.82 |
| SP500 | 9/1/2009 | 998.04 | 2.00 | -0.33 | 0.52 | 1.84 |
| SP500 | 10/1/2009 | 1,029.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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