Relatively Large Range Days In An Uptrend...

Over the past three days, the S&P 500 has traded in a range that exceeded 1.8% of it's previous day's close. Looking back for similar instances in an intermediate term up trend (50MA > 200MA), we find 16 occurrences. in 13 cases (or 81.25%), the S&P was trading higher the very next day. That is significantly higher than the 52% odds of higher random next day close.

It is also interesting to note from the table below that om 14 of the 16 cases (87.5%) the market has generally traded significantly higher 40 trading days out (2 months). Of course, as can be seen by observing the dates, the bulking of these signals occurred during the dot net bubble.

Ticker	Date/Time	Close	Day+	%Chg N1	%Chg N40
SP500	10/23/2009	1,079.60	0.00	0.00	0.00
SP500	8/16/2007	1,411.27	1.00	2.46	10.67
SP500	8/7/2007	1,476.71	1.00	1.41	4.26
SP500	10/26/2000	1,364.44	1.00	1.11	-4.29
SP500	10/19/2000	1,388.76	1.00	0.59	-5.52
SP500	10/13/2000	1,374.17	1.00	0.03	0.44
SP500	5/23/2000	1,373.86	1.00	1.83	8.86
SP500	5/11/2000	1,407.81	1.00	0.93	4.82
SP500	4/14/2000	1,356.56	1.00	3.31	8.32
SP500	3/15/2000	1,392.14	1.00	4.76	1.13
SP500	3/9/2000	1,401.69	0.00	-0.47	2.21
SP500	2/23/2000	1,360.69	0.00	-0.53	4.91
SP500	1/31/2000	1,394.46	1.00	1.06	8.12
SP500	1/5/2000	1,402.11	1.00	0.10	0.50
SP500	10/21/1999	1,283.61	1.00	1.41	10.71
SP500	5/26/1999	1,304.76	0.00	-1.79	4.00
SP500	1/14/1999	1,212.19	1.00	2.56	7.84