VIX Bottom

Finally, the last recent study i would like to document before looking ahead, is a dicussion i had with fellow traders this past wednesday where i argued that the VIX may have bottomed. Below is a study that shows the historical performance when we have observed similar patterns as we saw the last few days. As you can see this study had argued we were likely to see the VIX trading much higher in the coming 15 and 30 trading days later. On thursday, we had an 8+% move in the VIX. Based on this ONE study, there is more room for the VIX to rally.

Ticker	Date/Time	Close	vix	PctChg N15	PctChg N30
^VIX	2/15/1990	19.71	19.71	2.99	0.10
^VIX	6/20/1990	15.27	15.27	11.72	33.79
^VIX	11/13/1990	24.58	24.58	-14.81	0.94
^VIX	3/13/1991	16.09	16.09	11.93	6.59
^VIX	5/22/1991	16.16	16.16	5.14	13.55
^VIX	7/19/1991	15.50	15.50	-0.32	-6.71
^VIX	11/13/1991	13.95	13.95	44.73	12.54
^VIX	12/16/1991	17.62	17.62	6.24	0.00
^VIX	12/24/1991	15.67	15.67	12.57	19.91
^VIX	5/18/1992	14.62	14.62	9.23	-8.69
^VIX	6/15/1993	11.99	11.99	8.84	-5.17
^VIX	1/28/1994	9.94	9.94	47.89	67.10
^VIX	5/19/1994	11.94	11.94	6.28	20.27
^VIX	6/15/1994	11.52	11.52	21.61	4.43
^VIX	12/15/1994	12.87	12.87	3.57	-4.74
^VIX	9/1/1995	11.29	11.29	17.09	29.50
^VIX	6/28/1996	13.68	13.68	49.20	13.82
^VIX	1/22/1997	17.09	17.09	12.52	13.05
^VIX	9/22/1997	22.08	22.08	-8.24	45.34
^VIX	11/23/1998	21.84	21.84	34.71	11.58
^VIX	10/11/1999	20.63	20.63	7.08	-3.15
^VIX	11/19/1999	19.11	19.11	13.66	41.34
^VIX	11/21/2002	23.81	23.81	18.35	5.54
^VIX	4/11/2003	24.44	24.44	-13.54	-18.21
^VIX	5/16/2003	18.40	18.40	20.38	6.09
^VIX	12/20/2004	11.83	11.83	11.50	-1.44
^VIX	4/12/2005	11.30	11.30	28.58	12.30
^VIX	9/12/2005	11.65	11.65	6.95	26.52
^VIX	8/17/2006	12.24	12.24	7.52	-2.12
^VIX	10/13/2006	10.75	10.75	3.81	14.42
^VIX	11/16/2006	10.16	10.16	18.90	18.50
^VIX	12/24/2007	18.60	18.60	31.08	48.71
^VIX	5/6/2009	32.45	32.45	-2.40	-7.46
^VIX	6/26/2009	25.93	25.93	1.12	1.12