Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Nasdaq: Short Term and Intermediate term buy

Last night I pointed out conflicting studies. The Nasdaq 100 closing up 10 consecutive days argued for a close higher in the ST, while the DIA streak as well as BKX divergence with the S&P argued for a lower close on the NYSE and S&P. The markets today followed those expectations, with the S&P and NYSE closing down, while the nasdaq closed up.

With the NASDAQ 100 and the NASDAQ composite having closed up for the 11th consecutive day today, i thought it would be worth to look at historical performances of the composite after such occurrences. There have been 20 p
rior instances where the NASDAQ composite has closed up for 11 consecutive days. As you can see from the table below, in 18 out of the 20 (90%) cases the NASDAQ was trading higher at some point in the next 3 days. Also notable, is that the market was trading higher 18 out 20 (90%) of the time 4 weeks later.
TickerDate/TimeStreakClosePctChg N1PctChg N2PctChg N3PctChg N10PctChg N20
^IXIC3/9/197111104.41-0.26-0.140.090.673.02
^IXIC4/12/197111108.87-0.020.190.752.081.18
^IXIC12/14/19761194.650.290.30-0.011.731.45
^IXIC11/18/197711102.220.130.691.491.891.06
^IXIC6/9/197811124.41-0.10-0.140.08-2.95-4.04
^IXIC8/8/197811130.490.880.841.162.594.59
^IXIC6/14/197911136.020.17-0.120.021.511.84
^IXIC8/21/197911147.990.510.770.95-1.320.98
^IXIC6/18/198011157.19-0.29-0.43-0.131.277.30
^IXIC10/14/198011199.020.21-0.54-0.89-2.64-0.62
^IXIC1/22/198511268.400.861.452.095.297.04
^IXIC11/12/198511304.40-0.160.260.592.004.76
^IXIC2/14/198611350.200.630.540.832.745.65
^IXIC1/15/198711392.60-0.690.00-0.13-0.414.23
^IXIC6/17/198711428.400.140.160.21-0.911.12
^IXIC2/24/198811363.100.140.081.074.744.68
^IXIC5/24/199011458.30-1.00-0.170.110.570.22
^IXIC2/6/199111439.20-0.96-0.551.121.648.32
^IXIC1/7/199211602.291.332.912.230.434.77
^IXIC9/20/1996111,219.69-0.67-0.360.412.291.87
^IXIC7/22/2009111,926.380.000.000.000.000.00


This suggests that any dip over the next few days could result in a buying opportunity.

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