Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Trading Wednesday 7/15: Bias Negative

The BKX sell signal from last night is now off the board since it has been successfully fulfilled. We still have the lopsided breadth sell from last night. You can find that discussion here. In addition, we have the following signals tonight:

RSI(2) sell on the S&P. In the last decade, there were 184 such occurrences. in 138 cases , or 75% of the time, the market was trading lower within 3 days. This is significantly better than the 48% at-any-time odds .

The BKX underperformed the market today. In the past 10 years, when the S&P has finished up, while the BKX has finished down, the S&P is likely to close lower within 3 day 74% of the time.

Finally, the VIX as closed down 4 days in a row. The odds of an the S&P closing up the next 3 day is 74% over the past decade and 79% over the past 2 years

Given these setups, it would seem the best trade tomorrow would be to sell/short into strenght.


Anonymous said...

thanks for all the time and effot.. truly appreciated. cheers

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