Thursday, July 23, 2009

DOW: Interim term buy based on RSI(2) and higher highs in overbought conditions

Running similar studies as i did on the Nasdaq, but this time on the DOW, reveals the following.

The DOW is up 8 straight days. The short term is not as bullish as what the nasdaq revealed. For instance from 1965 to to 1995, the dow went on to close higher within 3 days in 16 of 18 occurrences, which ofcourse are excellent odds. But if we focus on recent history, say the last 2 decades, we see that in only 8 out of 13 occurrences did the dow close higher within 3 days. Looking out 10 days, or two weeks, still has favorable odds however. In the last two decades, the dow closed higher 11 out of 13 occurrences.

The RSI is also telling a similar story. When the RSI(2) has closed above 98 for 5 consecutive days on the DOW (as it did yesteray), the DOW has closed up 17 out 22 (or 77%) of the time. 20 days out, or 4 weeks later, the win ratio is still good at 16/22.

These types of data seem to suggest that we should be nibbling long on any short term pull back, rather than...well, think too logically and move to cash? not saying that is bad thing - but based on what this data suggests, there are still some rather favorable trades here on the long side.


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