RSI(2) closes above 98

Another short term sell was triggered today. S&P RSI(2) closed above 98. In the last decade, this has occurred 26 times. In 22 cases (or 84.6% of the time), the market closed lower than the trigger date within the next 3 days.

Ticker	Date/Time	Close	3Day-	%Chg N1	%Chg N2	%Chg N3
SPX	4/12/1999	1,358.63	1.00	-0.65	-2.22	-2.63
SPX	7/2/1999	1,391.22	1.00	-0.22	0.33	0.23
SPX	12/23/1999	1,458.34	1.00	-0.09	-0.05	0.35
SPX	12/31/1999	1,469.25	1.00	-0.95	-4.75	-4.57
SPX	7/14/2000	1,509.98	2.00	0.03	-1.08	-1.86
SPX	8/8/2000	1,482.80	1.00	-0.67	-1.52	-0.74
SPX	4/19/2001	1,253.69	1.00	-0.85	-2.34	-3.53
SPX	5/21/2001	1,312.83	1.00	-0.26	-1.81	-1.50
SPX	3/19/2003	874.02	3.00	0.19	2.49	-1.12
SPX	6/4/2003	986.24	3.00	0.40	0.15	-1.05
SPX	9/2/2003	1,021.99	3.00	0.42	0.59	-0.06
SPX	4/5/2004	1,150.57	1.00	-0.21	-0.87	-0.98
SPX	5/25/2004	1,113.05	0.00	0.17	0.74	0.69
SPX	11/3/2004	1,143.20	0.00	1.62	2.01	1.90
SPX	6/17/2005	1,216.96	1.00	-0.07	-0.28	-0.25
SPX	7/15/2005	1,227.92	1.00	-0.55	0.12	0.59
SPX	9/30/2005	1,228.81	1.00	-0.17	-1.17	-2.64
SPX	11/22/2005	1,261.23	3.00	0.35	0.56	-0.30
SPX	3/17/2006	1,307.25	1.00	-0.17	-0.77	-0.17
SPX	10/25/2006	1,382.22	2.00	0.50	-0.35	-0.31
SPX	4/10/2007	1,448.39	1.00	-0.66	-0.04	0.31
SPX	1/2/2009	931.80	1.00	-0.47	0.31	-2.70
SPX	5/4/2009	907.24	1.00	-0.38	1.35	0.02
SPX	7/16/2009	940.74	1.00	-0.04	1.10	1.47
SPX	7/20/2009	951.13	0.00	0.36	0.31	2.65
SPX	7/23/2009	976.29	0.00	0.30	0.60	0.34

So currently we have two short term sell signals on the board:

• Seven consecutive higher highs on S&P argues for a lower close than 1049.34 by Thursday (not very likely at this point)
• RSI(2) closes above 98 argues for a lower close than 1068.76 by Friday.