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BKX exhaustive move signal buy for S&P
The S&P topped in October of 2007. Since then, various interesting relationships have developed between the S&P and the BKX. One was triggered today and it seems to indicate short term exhaustion to the downside, arguing for a bounce over the next 3 days.
In the last decade, we have only had 27 instances where the S&P closed down 2% or more AND the BKX doubled that loss (i.e. closed down more than 4% loss). In 23 cases (or 85% of the time), the S&P was trading higher within 3 days. Note that in the majority of the cases, the gains came the very next day.
| Ticker | Date/Time | Close | Chg | BKX Chg | 3Day+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N2 | %Chg N3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 9/24/1998 | 1,042.72 | -2.19 | -5.04 | 1.00 | 0.19 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| ^GSPC | 10/12/2000 | 1,329.78 | -2.55 | -5.19 | 1.00 | 3.34 | 3.37 | 1.52 |
| ^GSPC | 3/14/2001 | 1,166.71 | -2.58 | -5.39 | 1.00 | 0.59 | -1.39 | 0.35 |
| ^GSPC | 7/23/2002 | 797.70 | -2.70 | -7.00 | 1.00 | 5.73 | 5.14 | 6.91 |
| ^GSPC | 11/1/2007 | 1,508.44 | -2.64 | -5.36 | 1.00 | 0.08 | -0.42 | 0.78 |
| ^GSPC | 12/11/2007 | 1,477.65 | -2.53 | -5.22 | 1.00 | 0.61 | 0.73 | -0.66 |
| ^GSPC | 3/14/2008 | 1,288.14 | -2.08 | -4.23 | 2.00 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 0.80 |
| ^GSPC | 7/9/2008 | 1,244.69 | -2.28 | -5.71 | 1.00 | 0.70 | -0.42 | -1.32 |
| ^GSPC | 7/24/2008 | 1,252.54 | -2.31 | -6.70 | 1.00 | 0.42 | -1.45 | 0.85 |
| ^GSPC | 9/22/2008 | 1,207.09 | -3.82 | -10.50 | 3.00 | -1.56 | -1.76 | 0.17 |
| ^GSPC | 9/29/2008 | 1,106.42 | -8.81 | -20.82 | 1.00 | 5.42 | 4.94 | 0.71 |
| ^GSPC | 12/9/2008 | 888.67 | -2.31 | -5.41 | 1.00 | 1.19 | -1.70 | -1.01 |
| ^GSPC | 12/11/2008 | 873.59 | -2.85 | -8.96 | 1.00 | 0.70 | -0.57 | 4.53 |
| ^GSPC | 1/12/2009 | 870.26 | -2.26 | -6.10 | 1.00 | 0.18 | -3.18 | -3.05 |
| ^GSPC | 1/20/2009 | 805.22 | -5.28 | -19.71 | 1.00 | 4.35 | 2.77 | 3.32 |
| ^GSPC | 1/29/2009 | 845.14 | -3.31 | -8.29 | 0.00 | -2.28 | -2.33 | -0.78 |
| ^GSPC | 2/10/2009 | 827.16 | -4.91 | -13.85 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.97 | -0.04 |
| ^GSPC | 2/17/2009 | 789.17 | -4.56 | -10.03 | 0.00 | -0.10 | -1.30 | -2.42 |
| ^GSPC | 2/27/2009 | 735.09 | -2.36 | -8.73 | 0.00 | -4.66 | -5.27 | -3.02 |
| ^GSPC | 3/5/2009 | 682.55 | -4.25 | -11.81 | 1.00 | 0.12 | -0.88 | 5.43 |
| ^GSPC | 3/24/2009 | 806.12 | -2.04 | -7.38 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 3.32 | 1.22 |
| ^GSPC | 3/30/2009 | 787.53 | -3.48 | -10.29 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 2.99 | 5.95 |
| ^GSPC | 4/14/2009 | 841.50 | -2.01 | -8.14 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 2.83 | 3.34 |
| ^GSPC | 4/20/2009 | 832.39 | -4.28 | -15.35 | 1.00 | 2.13 | 1.34 | 2.35 |
| ^GSPC | 5/11/2009 | 909.24 | -2.15 | -7.09 | 0.00 | -0.10 | -2.78 | -1.78 |
| ^GSPC | 5/13/2009 | 883.92 | -2.69 | -6.50 | 1.00 | 1.04 | -0.12 | 2.92 |
| ^GSPC | 6/22/2009 | 893.04 | -3.06 | -6.65 | 1.00 | 0.23 | 0.88 | 3.05 |
| ^GSPC | 9/1/2009 | 998.04 | -2.21 | -5.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
90% NYSE Down Volume Signal ST Buy for S&P
There have been 58 instances in the past decade where NYSE Down volume accounted for more than 90 percent of total volume. In 48 cases, or 83% of the time, the S&P was trading higher within 3 days.
SPY Short and Intermediate term buy
Today the SPY closed with a greater than 2 percent loss on volume that spiked to more than a 90 day high. As has been the case with the other two studies tonight, such an occurrence appears to coincide with a short term bottoming process. In the case of the SPY however, there are indications that this could be an intermediate term BUY opportunity as well. The table below shows the performance of the SPY 1, 2, 3 and 20 days out. The "3Day+" column indicates the number of days it took for the SPY to post a close higher than the trigger date. Notice that in 13 out of 16 cases (or 81.3%), the SPY was trading higher within 3 days. However, what is also interesting to note is the performance 20 trading days out. There we see that the SPY was trading higher 81.3% of the time as well.
| Ticker | Date/Time | Close | 3Day+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N2 | %Chg N3 | %Chg N20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 3/8/1996 | 51.57 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 0.35 | 1.05 | 1.90 |
| SPY | 8/8/1997 | 77.54 | 1.00 | 0.74 | -0.86 | -1.17 | 0.19 |
| SPY | 10/27/1997 | 72.67 | 1.00 | 5.78 | 5.49 | 3.16 | 8.96 |
| SPY | 8/27/1998 | 87.34 | 0.00 | -0.37 | -7.47 | -3.55 | 0.82 |
| SPY | 2/24/2000 | 114.56 | 2.00 | -0.36 | 1.74 | 2.71 | 14.38 |
| SPY | 4/14/2000 | 116.73 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 6.23 | 5.24 | 6.83 |
| SPY | 10/12/2000 | 114.82 | 1.00 | 3.33 | 3.81 | 1.22 | 5.19 |
| SPY | 3/16/2001 | 99.73 | 1.00 | 2.04 | -0.70 | -2.39 | 2.26 |
| SPY | 9/19/2001 | 88.66 | 0.00 | -3.18 | -4.23 | -0.86 | 5.99 |
| SPY | 7/10/2002 | 80.92 | 1.00 | 0.82 | -0.28 | 0.25 | -4.36 |
| SPY | 7/19/2002 | 74.41 | 3.00 | -2.96 | -5.62 | 0.01 | 10.05 |
| SPY | 7/22/2002 | 72.21 | 2.00 | -2.74 | 3.06 | 2.19 | 16.05 |
| SPY | 2/27/2007 | 132.06 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.72 | -0.60 | 2.81 |
| SPY | 7/26/2007 | 141.28 | 0.00 | -1.96 | -0.43 | -1.55 | -1.01 |
| SPY | 9/17/2008 | 113.55 | 1.00 | 2.97 | 7.05 | 4.63 | -22.36 |
| SPY | 10/10/2008 | 86.67 | 1.00 | 14.53 | 12.83 | 1.72 | 6.06 |
| SPY | 9/1/2009 | 100.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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