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Update: Sept 17th Buy signals - the ST setup discussed was fullfilled on Sept 18th with a higher close. The intermediate term study remains on the board and suggests the market should close above 1065 my mid October.
Last week, Nasdaq 100 has essentially regained all it's losses since the Lehman crash. It has now crossed over it's 200 WEEKLY moving average and in overbought (as defined by a weekly RSI(14) > 70).
It would appear that this index is over extended and should be avoided. However history says otherwise and argues that there is a decent 1-3 week play here. Over the history of the Nasdaq 100, there have been 28 instances where the Nasdaq 100 closed above it's 200MA with an RSI(14) reading over 70. In 24 of those cases (or 86% of the time), the Nasdaq 100 went on to make another weekly higher close within the next 3 weeks. This suggest that if the Nasdaq dips below 1725, it could be a good buy for a 1 to 3 week play.
| Ticker | Date/Time | Close | 3Week+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N2 | %Chg N3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX | 9/1/1989 | 223.51 | 3.00 | -0.38 | -0.69 | 0.17 |
| NDX | 9/22/1989 | 223.89 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 4.69 | 0.34 |
| NDX | 2/1/1991 | 234.45 | 1.00 | 4.27 | 5.92 | 6.05 |
| NDX | 3/28/1991 | 264.90 | 1.00 | 3.98 | 5.40 | 3.44 |
| NDX | 1/3/1992 | 334.82 | 1.00 | 3.67 | 4.45 | 3.17 |
| NDX | 2/7/1992 | 346.80 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -1.27 | -0.27 |
| NDX | 12/4/1992 | 358.40 | 0.00 | -2.10 | -0.14 | -0.23 |
| NDX | 1/8/1993 | 365.54 | 1.00 | 3.75 | 3.36 | 1.37 |
| NDX | 3/24/1995 | 455.43 | 3.00 | -1.82 | -2.51 | 0.77 |
| NDX | 4/28/1995 | 469.56 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 2.90 | 4.33 |
| NDX | 7/28/1995 | 574.18 | 2.00 | -2.37 | 0.25 | 3.72 |
| NDX | 8/18/1995 | 595.52 | 3.00 | -2.59 | -3.75 | 1.47 |
| NDX | 9/20/1996 | 743.42 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 2.11 | 2.99 |
| NDX | 11/8/1996 | 798.66 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 2.47 | 4.43 |
| NDX | 5/23/1997 | 959.08 | 3.00 | -0.02 | -1.47 | 0.55 |
| NDX | 6/13/1997 | 964.40 | 1.00 | 1.76 | -0.14 | 2.29 |
| NDX | 7/3/1997 | 986.52 | 1.00 | 2.95 | 8.56 | 10.02 |
| NDX | 10/10/1997 | 1,137.77 | 0.00 | -5.51 | -7.07 | -10.38 |
| NDX | 7/10/1998 | 1,391.11 | 1.00 | 5.24 | 1.26 | -1.00 |
| NDX | 12/11/1998 | 1,675.01 | 1.00 | 3.58 | 7.82 | 9.61 |
| NDX | 3/19/1999 | 2,053.69 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 4.50 | 8.71 |
| NDX | 7/9/1999 | 2,393.02 | 1.00 | 2.78 | -3.80 | -5.10 |
| NDX | 11/12/1999 | 2,888.91 | 1.00 | 4.84 | 7.88 | 9.81 |
| NDX | 2/4/2000 | 3,874.37 | 1.00 | 2.44 | 2.36 | 7.85 |
| NDX | 11/24/2006 | 1,815.53 | 0.00 | -2.23 | -1.61 | -0.38 |
| NDX | 7/13/2007 | 2,032.16 | 1.00 | 0.18 | -3.74 | -5.59 |
| NDX | 10/5/2007 | 2,149.67 | 1.00 | 1.32 | -0.86 | 2.09 |
| NDX | 10/26/2007 | 2,194.59 | 1.00 | 0.88 | -7.30 | -6.65 |
| NDX | 9/18/2009 | 1,725.24 | 1.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
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