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"We are experiencing technical difficulties..."
Unfortuantely, this past weekend, i began receiving RAID failure errors on my system that is home to most of my software. I was able to get her back up, but unfortunately she does not say up long enough to do much. I have since ordered a new system. I expect it to be here within a week. Hopefully i'll be back up shortly.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
Large DJT Declines In An Uptrend = ST Bullish
The Dow Jones Transportation Index has been been lagging the broader market significantly recently. On Friday, it dropped 3.4%, it's largest decline in two months. Since 1990, when the DJT has declined more than 3% while the S&P is in an intermediate term uptrend (defined as 50MA > 200MA), it has paid to buy the S&P. There have been 32 such cases. In 28 cases (or 87.5%), the S&P was trading higher within 3 days.
(Note: column '3Day+' displays the number of days it took the S&P to close higher within the next 3 days. a value of 0 indicates the market did not close higher within 3 days)
| Ticker | Date/Time | Close | 3Day+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N2 | %Chg N3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP500 | 10/23/2009 | 1,079.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SP500 | 8/17/2009 | 979.73 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.71 | 2.82 |
| SP500 | 7/7/2009 | 881.03 | 2.00 | -0.17 | 0.19 | -0.22 |
| SP500 | 7/2/2009 | 896.42 | 1.00 | 0.26 | -1.72 | -1.88 |
| SP500 | 12/11/2007 | 1,477.65 | 1.00 | 0.61 | 0.73 | -0.66 |
| SP500 | 11/7/2007 | 1,475.62 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -1.49 | -2.47 |
| SP500 | 8/15/2007 | 1,406.70 | 1.00 | 0.32 | 2.79 | 2.76 |
| SP500 | 8/14/2007 | 1,426.54 | 3.00 | -1.39 | -1.07 | 1.36 |
| SP500 | 8/3/2007 | 1,433.06 | 1.00 | 2.42 | 3.05 | 4.50 |
| SP500 | 2/27/2007 | 1,399.04 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.30 | -0.85 |
| SP500 | 6/23/2005 | 1,200.73 | 3.00 | -0.76 | -0.84 | 0.07 |
| SP500 | 4/14/2005 | 1,162.05 | 0.00 | -1.67 | -1.38 | -0.80 |
| SP500 | 4/8/2005 | 1,181.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 | -0.63 |
| SP500 | 8/23/2000 | 1,505.97 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| SP500 | 7/19/2000 | 1,481.96 | 1.00 | 0.92 | -0.12 | -1.19 |
| SP500 | 5/25/2000 | 1,381.52 | 2.00 | -0.25 | 2.96 | 2.83 |
| SP500 | 4/14/2000 | 1,356.56 | 1.00 | 3.31 | 6.27 | 5.23 |
| SP500 | 3/7/2000 | 1,355.62 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 3.40 | 2.91 |
| SP500 | 11/17/1999 | 1,410.71 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| SP500 | 9/16/1999 | 1,318.48 | 1.00 | 1.28 | 1.29 | -0.83 |
| SP500 | 8/27/1998 | 1,042.59 | 0.00 | -1.48 | -8.18 | -4.64 |
| SP500 | 8/4/1998 | 1,072.12 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.63 | 1.62 |
| SP500 | 4/27/1998 | 1,086.54 | 2.00 | -0.13 | 0.74 | 2.32 |
| SP500 | 10/27/1997 | 876.99 | 1.00 | 5.12 | 4.81 | 3.04 |
| SP500 | 7/15/1996 | 629.80 | 2.00 | -0.23 | 0.68 | 2.18 |
| SP500 | 2/16/1993 | 433.91 | 3.00 | -0.14 | -0.46 | 0.07 |
| SP500 | 4/7/1992 | 398.06 | 2.00 | -0.89 | 0.65 | 1.57 |
| SP500 | 11/15/1991 | 382.62 | 1.00 | 0.68 | -0.84 | -1.07 |
| SP500 | 8/19/1991 | 376.47 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| SP500 | 8/23/1990 | 307.06 | 1.00 | 1.45 | 4.68 | 4.65 |
| SP500 | 8/6/1990 | 334.43 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 1.17 | 1.65 |
| SP500 | 8/3/1990 | 344.86 | 0.00 | -3.02 | -2.91 | -1.89 |
| SP500 | 1/30/1990 | 322.98 | 1.00 | 1.89 | 1.80 | 2.46 |
Relatively Large Range Days In An Uptrend...
Over the past three days, the S&P 500 has traded in a range that exceeded 1.8% of it's previous day's close. Looking back for similar instances in an intermediate term up trend (50MA > 200MA), we find 16 occurrences. in 13 cases (or 81.25%), the S&P was trading higher the very next day. That is significantly higher than the 52% odds of higher random next day close.
It is also interesting to note from the table below that om 14 of the 16 cases (87.5%) the market has generally traded significantly higher 40 trading days out (2 months). Of course, as can be seen by observing the dates, the bulking of these signals occurred during the dot net bubble.
| Ticker | Date/Time | Close | Day+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP500 | 10/23/2009 | 1,079.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SP500 | 8/16/2007 | 1,411.27 | 1.00 | 2.46 | 10.67 |
| SP500 | 8/7/2007 | 1,476.71 | 1.00 | 1.41 | 4.26 |
| SP500 | 10/26/2000 | 1,364.44 | 1.00 | 1.11 | -4.29 |
| SP500 | 10/19/2000 | 1,388.76 | 1.00 | 0.59 | -5.52 |
| SP500 | 10/13/2000 | 1,374.17 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| SP500 | 5/23/2000 | 1,373.86 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 8.86 |
| SP500 | 5/11/2000 | 1,407.81 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 4.82 |
| SP500 | 4/14/2000 | 1,356.56 | 1.00 | 3.31 | 8.32 |
| SP500 | 3/15/2000 | 1,392.14 | 1.00 | 4.76 | 1.13 |
| SP500 | 3/9/2000 | 1,401.69 | 0.00 | -0.47 | 2.21 |
| SP500 | 2/23/2000 | 1,360.69 | 0.00 | -0.53 | 4.91 |
| SP500 | 1/31/2000 | 1,394.46 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 8.12 |
| SP500 | 1/5/2000 | 1,402.11 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| SP500 | 10/21/1999 | 1,283.61 | 1.00 | 1.41 | 10.71 |
| SP500 | 5/26/1999 | 1,304.76 | 0.00 | -1.79 | 4.00 |
| SP500 | 1/14/1999 | 1,212.19 | 1.00 | 2.56 | 7.84 |
Friday, October 23, 2009
USD Lower Lows Signals S&P Short Term Buy
Looking at the chart of the US dollar(on a closing basis) from the 2007 to present shows that the S&P and the dollar have been moving inversely in what appears to be lock steps. This is interesting to me because it was 2007 where we topped and eventually began a decline that would lead us into a recession. Since 2007, in a trending market (defined by the S&P 50 MA trading above the 200MA), when the dollar has made a new 40 day low, but the S&P did not make a 40 day high , the S&P typically goes on to make a higher high within 3 days .
- There have been 49 prior instances since 2007. In 44 cases (or 89.8%) , the market went on to make a higher high within 3 days.
- In 41 cases (83.7%) of the times, the market closed higher within two days.
(Note: column '3Day+' displays the number of days it took the S&P to close higher within the next 3 days. a value of 0 indicates the market did not close higher within 3 days)
Ticker | Date/Time | 3Day+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N2 | %Chg N3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP500 | 10/22/2009 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
SP500 | 10/21/2009 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
SP500 | 10/13/2009 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 2.18 | 1.35 |
SP500 | 10/8/2009 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.01 | 0.72 |
SP500 | 9/17/2009 | 1.00 | 0.26 | -0.08 | 0.58 |
SP500 | 9/11/2009 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.95 | 2.50 |
SP500 | 9/8/2009 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 1.83 | 1.69 |
SP500 | 8/5/2009 | 2.00 | -0.56 | 0.77 | 0.44 |
SP500 | 11/26/2007 | 1.00 | 1.49 | 4.39 | 4.44 |
SP500 | 11/23/2007 | 3.00 | -2.32 | -0.87 | 1.97 |
SP500 | 11/21/2007 | 1.00 | 1.69 | -0.67 | 0.81 |
SP500 | 11/20/2007 | 2.00 | -1.59 | 0.07 | -2.26 |
SP500 | 11/9/2007 | 2.00 | -1.00 | 1.88 | 1.16 |
SP500 | 11/8/2007 | 3.00 | -1.43 | -2.41 | 0.43 |
SP500 | 11/7/2007 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -1.49 | -2.47 |
SP500 | 11/6/2007 | 0.00 | -2.94 | -2.99 | -4.38 |
SP500 | 11/2/2007 | 2.00 | -0.50 | 0.70 | -2.25 |
SP500 | 10/31/2007 | 0.00 | -2.64 | -2.56 | -3.05 |
SP500 | 10/30/2007 | 1.00 | 1.20 | -1.47 | -1.40 |
SP500 | 10/29/2007 | 2.00 | -0.65 | 0.55 | -2.11 |
SP500 | 10/26/2007 | 1.00 | 0.37 | -0.28 | 0.92 |
SP500 | 10/25/2007 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.76 | 1.10 |
SP500 | 10/19/2007 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 1.26 | 1.02 |
SP500 | 10/18/2007 | 0.00 | -2.56 | -2.19 | -1.33 |
SP500 | 9/28/2007 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 0.84 |
SP500 | 9/25/2007 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.93 | 0.63 |
SP500 | 9/21/2007 | 0.00 | -0.53 | -0.56 | -0.02 |
SP500 | 9/20/2007 | 1.00 | 0.46 | -0.07 | -0.10 |
SP500 | 9/12/2007 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.35 |
SP500 | 9/11/2007 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 0.87 |
SP500 | 9/10/2007 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 2.22 |
SP500 | 9/7/2007 | 2.00 | -0.13 | 1.23 | 1.24 |
SP500 | 7/24/2007 | 1.00 | 0.47 | -1.88 | -3.45 |
SP500 | 7/20/2007 | 1.00 | 0.49 | -1.50 | -1.04 |
SP500 | 7/18/2007 | 1.00 | 0.45 | -0.78 | -0.30 |
SP500 | 7/16/2007 | 3.00 | -0.01 | -0.22 | 0.23 |
SP500 | 7/11/2007 | 1.00 | 1.91 | 2.22 | 2.03 |
SP500 | 7/10/2007 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 2.49 | 2.81 |
SP500 | 7/2/2007 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.72 |
SP500 | 4/30/2007 | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.91 | 1.35 |
SP500 | 4/24/2007 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
SP500 | 4/19/2007 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
SP500 | 4/13/2007 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.28 | 1.35 |
SP500 | 4/12/2007 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 1.42 | 1.64 |
SP500 | 4/11/2007 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 2.05 |
SP500 | 4/5/2007 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 0.32 | -0.34 |
SP500 | 3/21/2007 | 2.00 | -0.03 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
SP500 | 3/20/2007 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.78 |
SP500 | 3/16/2007 | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.73 | 3.47 |
SP500 | 2/27/2007 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.30 | -0.85 |
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Using Immediate DJT Confirmation of New Dow Highs as a Short Term Buy
There are two interesting observations related to Dow new highs that are immediately followed by Dow Jones Transportation Index new highs. One pertains to the longer term new high (1 year), and the other more interesting observation is using a shorter period new high.
Yesterday the Dow made a 1 year closing high. Today, while the Dow Jones Transportation Index did not make it's one year high as yet, it did make a 200 day high (241 to be exact). Since 1929, this pattern has occurred only 20 times, with the Dow trading up 19 times within 3 days (18 of those occurred within 2 days).
Relaxing the critierias a little, we find that looking for DJT confirmation over a short period provides similarly impressive odds. When the Dow has made a new 40 day high, followed immediately the next day by the DJT printing a new 40 day high as well, it has often led to a higher high in the Dow within the next 1 to 3 days. There have been 46 similar occurrences since 1929. In 42 cases (or 91.3%), the Dow was trading higher within 3 days. In 38 cases (or 82.6% of the time) the Dow was trading higher within 2 days.
Yesterday the Dow made a 1 year closing high. Today, while the Dow Jones Transportation Index did not make it's one year high as yet, it did make a 200 day high (241 to be exact). Since 1929, this pattern has occurred only 20 times, with the Dow trading up 19 times within 3 days (18 of those occurred within 2 days).
Relaxing the critierias a little, we find that looking for DJT confirmation over a short period provides similarly impressive odds. When the Dow has made a new 40 day high, followed immediately the next day by the DJT printing a new 40 day high as well, it has often led to a higher high in the Dow within the next 1 to 3 days. There have been 46 similar occurrences since 1929. In 42 cases (or 91.3%), the Dow was trading higher within 3 days. In 38 cases (or 82.6% of the time) the Dow was trading higher within 2 days.
| Ticker | Date/Time | Close | 3Day+ | %Chg N1 | %Chg N2 | %Chg N3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJI | 10/20/2009 | 10,041.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| DJI | 4/30/2009 | 8,168.12 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 3.17 | 2.97 |
| DJI | 5/31/2007 | 13,627.64 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.36 | -0.24 |
| DJI | 5/3/2006 | 11,400.28 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 1.56 | 1.62 |
| DJI | 4/24/2006 | 11,336.32 | 2.00 | -0.47 | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| DJI | 4/3/1998 | 8,983.41 | 1.00 | 0.55 | -0.30 | -1.02 |
| DJI | 11/18/1996 | 6,346.91 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| DJI | 10/15/1996 | 6,004.78 | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.91 | 1.49 |
| DJI | 11/6/1995 | 4,814.01 | 2.00 | -0.35 | 0.80 | 1.04 |
| DJI | 1/6/1992 | 3,200.13 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| DJI | 9/5/1989 | 2,744.68 | 0.00 | -0.91 | -1.38 | -1.28 |
| DJI | 7/28/1989 | 2,635.24 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.22 | 0.84 |
| DJI | 7/24/1989 | 2,584.98 | 2.00 | -0.07 | 1.09 | 1.95 |
| DJI | 8/14/1987 | 2,685.43 | 1.00 | 0.56 | -1.15 | -0.73 |
| DJI | 8/7/1987 | 2,592.00 | 1.00 | 1.69 | 3.41 | 2.98 |
| DJI | 11/29/1985 | 1,472.13 | 3.00 | -0.97 | -0.89 | 0.83 |
| DJI | 1/11/1980 | 858.53 | 1.00 | 0.59 | 1.17 | 0.78 |
| DJI | 3/23/1979 | 859.75 | 2.00 | -0.57 | 1.35 | 0.76 |
| DJI | 11/6/1974 | 669.12 | 1.00 | 0.42 | -0.29 | 0.53 |
| DJI | 3/2/1972 | 933.77 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.76 | 1.40 |
| DJI | 1/10/1966 | 985.41 | 1.00 | 0.15 | -0.15 | 0.03 |
| DJI | 9/21/1965 | 926.52 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| DJI | 6/10/1960 | 654.88 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | -0.83 |
| DJI | 1/4/1960 | 679.06 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.52 | -0.21 |
| DJI | 7/8/1958 | 480.00 | 3.00 | -0.50 | -0.21 | 0.59 |
| DJI | 6/5/1958 | 468.55 | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.19 | -0.08 |
| DJI | 4/25/1957 | 492.29 | 2.00 | -0.16 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| DJI | 4/4/1957 | 477.43 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 1.10 |
| DJI | 7/23/1956 | 513.61 | 2.00 | -0.09 | 0.10 | 0.44 |
| DJI | 9/7/1955 | 475.20 | 3.00 | -0.03 | -0.13 | 0.28 |
| DJI | 7/7/1954 | 340.34 | 2.00 | -0.16 | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| DJI | 5/19/1954 | 323.21 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| DJI | 11/6/1953 | 278.83 | 0.00 | -0.20 | -1.05 | -0.93 |
| DJI | 11/10/1952 | 273.47 | 0.00 | -0.55 | -0.34 | -0.07 |
| DJI | 9/6/1951 | 272.28 | 1.00 | 0.59 | 1.09 | 0.59 |
| DJI | 10/17/1947 | 183.52 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.46 |
| DJI | 12/4/1945 | 193.06 | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| DJI | 10/9/1945 | 185.43 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| DJI | 7/6/1944 | 149.07 | 1.00 | 0.19 | 0.96 | 0.74 |
| DJI | 9/29/1942 | 109.24 | 2.00 | -0.12 | 0.38 | 1.46 |
| DJI | 7/14/1941 | 127.89 | 1.00 | 0.23 | -0.05 | -0.59 |
| DJI | 10/6/1938 | 148.10 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 0.98 | 0.88 |
| DJI | 1/19/1937 | 184.02 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.57 | 1.36 |
| DJI | 4/23/1935 | 110.06 | 2.00 | -0.55 | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| DJI | 4/21/1933 | 69.78 | 1.00 | 5.60 | 3.83 | 4.10 |
| DJI | 2/14/1930 | 271.52 | 0.00 | -0.36 | -0.29 | -1.13 |
| DJI | 8/26/1929 | 374.46 | 3.00 | -0.18 | -0.64 | 0.46 |
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