Wednesday, August 5, 2009

GUT: Melt Up coming?

The markets today continue to dream the impossible dream it seems, making higher highs in extreme overbought. The two studies from last night are still on the board and will remain there until Thursday. However, i have a strong feeling the market may defy the odds this time around.
We are in an environment where bulls rush to buy every dip, despite the market being overbought, despite charts showing negative divergence, despite indices chalking up win streaks we have not seen in decades - all with very little to no pause in between. This type of market indicates traders and investors may have embraced risk once more. It is also likely that those that were unwilling to commit to the equity market, may soon feel compelled to. Combine this with shorts that have been bruised and battered and easily forced to cover, you have a the recipe for a melt-up.

Thus, i will likely not be acting on negative odds until we get that breakout i have been expecting, followed by a retrace. Instead i will continue to look for dips to go long.

Good trading!


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