Tuesday, August 4, 2009

BKX and XLF extremely overbought.

Not since 2006 has the BKX been this overbought, as defined by an RSI(5) close greater than 90. There have been 20 previous instances, with 17 resulting in a lower close within 3 days.

Not since 2005 has the XLF been this overbought. There have only been 6 previous instances where the RSI(5) of the XLF closed above 90, but it is interesting to note that in every case, the XLF was trading lower within TWO days.

I think it is important however to keep in mind that the intermediate and long term views are bullish, and the S&P just closed above an important psychological resistance. It is possible we could see an early run tomorrow. That may present a better short opportunity than attempting to do so right out of the gate.


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