Friday, December 23, 2011

Dow Theory confirming bullish move?

S&P managed to close higher for the year today and in doing so, also closed above it's 200MA, finding itself in a territory it has not been able to maintain for more than a few days in the past 6 months. Will it continue to climb higher from here? It's sometimes risky to read too much into movement of the indices this time of the year, given that volume typically is below average, but from a classical TA point of view, there are some interesting observations to note that make set of bullish arguments.

  • Old school technicians will point out that the Dow Theory is confirm this move, with both the transports and Dow Industrials making higher highs.
  • Bull flags are popping up on may chart indices
  • Dow and S&P are showing inverse H&S breakout setup
  • More and more stocks are making new 52 wk highs, also serving to confirm this move and thus offering no divergence warning.
  • The up volume vs down volume Tuesday was riiiiidiculous! I am trying to get my old feed for a/d and u/d so i can run some tests, but with that kind of lopsidedness after a pretty decent sell off the previous days, in my opinion, are smart buyers. (Btw, for get what the head lines state, Tuesday's rally was purely bond market related...in particular, Spanish bond action was well received, easing concerns over the EU debacle).
  • And of course the S&P has managed to close above its 200MA today

Merry Christmas. Easing back in...after being away for some time (conflict of interest removed :))

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