tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5689135812759717043.post3302038498312949501..comments2018-07-27T09:08:53.804-04:00Comments on Small Fish, Big Odds: TRIN, Reversal bar + ADX divergence indicating ST bounceThe Small Fishhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04619208391948286184noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5689135812759717043.post-79837739717568893822009-09-29T01:39:55.392-04:002009-09-29T01:39:55.392-04:00A quick follow up on this (i have been busy lately...A quick follow up on this (i have been busy lately with some personal matters lately and have not been able to post)...<br />Frank you are correct regarding the odds of a close higher within two days. I did not revert my check for ANY day and had it set to check exactly 2 days following a buy.<br /><br />Thanks once more for pointing this out.The Small Fishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619208391948286184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5689135812759717043.post-39500660190365068712009-09-24T13:51:44.660-04:002009-09-24T13:51:44.660-04:00hi frank and thanks much for the compliment...it m...hi frank and thanks much for the compliment...it means a lot coming from you.<br /><br />i will have to double check this tonight, but i suspect you are correct, i recall in my previous blog entry i wanted to check the performance 20 days out. i think err'd and simply changed it to 2 without consideration to 'any day up' with in that time frame.<br /><br />by 'market' in this case, i am referring to S&P 500. the start date as i recall was 1/1/1999, but will double check this also.<br /><br />thanks for pointing this up. love your blog - probably among the top 5 out there i would say and definitely #1 based on your 'niche'.The Small Fishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619208391948286184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5689135812759717043.post-80037813203082864822009-09-24T06:49:20.408-04:002009-09-24T06:49:20.408-04:00The Small Fish,
I really appreaciate your blog (e...The Small Fish,<br /><br />I really appreaciate your blog (especially due to the fact that we follow a similar approach), and thanks for the excellent work.<br /><br />A couple of questions.<br /><br />cit.: 'That is significantly better than the 50.51% historical odds of the market closing higher within 2 days from any given close.'<br /><br />1) Does 'market' mean S&P 500 or the NYSE or Nasdaq ?<br /><br />2) What is the start date of 'historical' odds ?<br /><br />3) Does 'closing higher' mean a higher close exactly two sessions later, or at least one higher close within the then following two sessions ? Since 1990 the ES E-mini S&P 500's probability of at least one higher close over the course of the then following two sessions are 65.36% (either one or two sessions later), so I think a higher close exactly two sessions later is meant which matches the 50.51%, not at least one higher close 1 or 2 sessions later.<br /><br />Best,<br />Frank<br />http://www.tradingtheodds.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com